Australia’s ASIC rejects prediction markets, likens them to betting

Australia’s corporate regulator has firmly pushed back against prediction markets, stating that such products carry “all the features of a bet” and will not be permitted under current rules. In a blog post published last Friday, Sarah Court, Chair of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), said the agency “is not currently convinced” that prediction markets can operate within the country’s legal framework.

Court’s remarks come as prediction markets—platforms where users wager on the outcome of future events, such as elections or economic data—gain traction in other jurisdictions. However, ASIC’s stance draws a clear line between these products and traditional betting, arguing that they function more like gambling than regulated financial instruments.

The regulator’s position effectively blocks the launch of such markets in Australia, despite their growing global acceptance. Court emphasized that ASIC’s role is to protect investors and maintain market integrity, and that allowing prediction markets could blur the boundary between investing and wagering.

This is not the first time Australian authorities have scrutinized prediction markets. Previous regulatory actions have targeted platforms offering event-based contracts, often classifying them as illegal betting services. The latest statement reinforces that approach, signaling that ASIC will continue to treat these products with caution.

Industry observers note that the decision could isolate Australian consumers from a rapidly expanding sector, but ASIC appears unmoved by international trends. Court’s blog post serves as a clear warning to any operator considering launching such services in the country, making it unlikely that prediction markets will emerge in Australia in the near future.