Poll Shows Public Split on Whether Prediction Markets Count as Gambling

A new survey from The Harris Poll, commissioned by the National Council on Problem Gambling, indicates that Americans are sharply divided on whether trading on prediction markets should be considered gambling. According to the poll, approximately half of respondents said they view such trading as similar to gambling.

The findings come as prediction markets — platforms where users bet on the outcome of real-world events such as elections, sports results, or economic indicators — have seen a surge in popularity across both the gaming and financial sectors. Their rapid growth has drawn increased attention from regulators and lawmakers.

The survey highlights a growing public debate over how to classify these platforms. While some participants see them as a form of entertainment or financial speculation, others equate them directly with traditional gambling activities.

Experts suggest that the lack of a clear legal framework for prediction markets may be contributing to the public’s uncertainty. Currently, these platforms operate in a regulatory gray area, with some falling under oversight from gambling authorities and others treated as financial instruments.

The National Council on Problem Gambling commissioned the poll to better understand public perception as prediction markets expand. The organization has long advocated for clear definitions of gambling to ensure consumer protections are in place.

As the industry continues to grow, the poll’s results may inform future regulatory decisions, particularly regarding how prediction markets are classified and taxed, and whether they should be subject to the same responsible-gaming safeguards as traditional betting products.