US Residents Traded $34 Billion on Unregulated Offshore Prediction Markets, Study Finds

Americans have placed up to $34 billion in bets on unregulated offshore prediction markets, according to a new estimate from the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM), a trade group representing licensed U.S. prediction market operators. The figure, based on analysis of trading activity across multiple platforms, excludes any legal domestic options.

CPM projects that the volume on these illegal sites could quadruple by 2030 if no action is taken to address the regulatory gap. The bulk of the current trading volume is concentrated on Polymarket, a blockchain-based platform that is not licensed in the United States.

The study underscores the scale of offshore activity in the prediction market sector, which functions similarly to sports betting or financial derivatives but uses event-based contracts. U.S. regulators have long warned that such platforms operate outside federal gambling and securities laws.

CPM did not specify the exact methodology used to arrive at the $34 billion figure but noted that it encompasses a range of platforms and trading volumes from recent years. The group is pressing for clearer rules to channel this demand into regulated markets.

No federal enforcement action has been announced in response to the report, though several state regulators have previously issued cease-and-desist letters to unlicensed operators. Polymarket has not commented on the study's findings.